14 April 2026
— Hargreaves to Pak, Osei, Villanueva
Internal Memo
Duration pattern has held for three consecutive weeks. Villanueva's model has been revised twice and each revision has narrowed the projected intersection window rather than widened it. Current best estimate: 20 June, ±1 day. The solstice is 21 June. I don't think the margin of error is real. I think it's the solstice.
Which raises the question we've been circling for a fortnight: do we intervene before the intersection, or do we let it arrive and see what happens.
The simplest intervention would be to remove the subject from the property before the convergence date. Fabricate a reason — family emergency, a work trip the client arranges — and get him somewhere else for a few days. If whatever is building requires his presence at that specific location on that specific date, disruption may be sufficient. This has precedent. It is the least invasive option and the one I would normally recommend.
The problem is that we don't know what we're disrupting. If this is a process — something with a beginning and an end — then interruption might resolve it cleanly. But if it's a summons, removing the subject may simply mean it finds another way. And we will have spent our best information advantage — the fact that the subject doesn't know we're watching — on a gamble.
I'm asking for positions before Friday.
I lean towards removal. The client engaged us to protect his partner. If we sit on our hands and something happens to the subject on the solstice, the fact that we had three months' warning and chose to observe will be difficult to explain. To the client and to ourselves.
Counterpoint: we don't actually know that something bad happens. We have a man who stares at where the sun will rise, and the staring is getting longer. That's unsettling. It is not, on the available evidence, harmful. His bloodwork is normal. His behaviour during the day is unchanged. He goes to work. He eats dinner. He sleeps — eventually. There is an argument that we are projecting threat onto a pattern simply because we don't understand it.
To be clear, I don't believe that argument. But it is an argument.
The duration curve is not approaching a plateau. It's approaching a saturation point. When the staring time fills the entire night, there is no night left. I don't know what that means. I don't think we should find out with the subject standing in his kitchen.
Noted. No consensus. We table the intervention question and focus on identification. If we can determine what we're dealing with, the response framework becomes clearer. Excavation proposal to follow.